Antonio Campati, Martino Mazzoleni and Andrea Scavo find, based on survey evidence, that Italians do not perceive an authoritarian risk in the far-right government led by Giorgia Meloni. However, they also discover a generational difference in attitudes towards democracy that may cause problems in the future
Against the background of global democratic backsliding, observers have been wondering about the health of stable democracies, especially those in which populist and extremist parties have accessed power. In Europe, democracy supporters’ distress recently increased following the upsurge in votes for the radical right in the elections for the European Parliament, and in the French National Assembly.
Scholars have consistently rated Italy as a liberal democracy not at risk, albeit one with lasting flaws. At the same time, Italy has experienced endemic corruption and organised crime, alongside enduring concerns about the rights of migrants and minorities.
Anti-politics attitudes and democratic disenchantment are structural and long-term problems, in Italy as elsewhere. The September 2022 electoral victory of the centre-right coalition led by Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy / FdI), the political heirs of the post-fascist movement, sparked concern among political observers.
Scholars describe FdI and its governmental partner Lega as far-right, populist, and Eurosceptic. FdI has repeatedly been in the public glare for encouraging dictatorship nostalgia among its national and local representatives. The party has also blurred the boundaries between itself and the far-right extremist constellation.
In the 2022 election, the centre-right alliance won an outright majority in both houses of Parliament. This resulted in the most right-wing government since Mussolini. FdI leader Giorgia Meloni became Prime Minister, and allocated the deputy PM post and relevant portfolios to politicians from the anti-immigrant and anti-EU Lega.
The alliance then won most of the ensuing ballots for regional governments, which have law-making powers and manage health services. In February 2024, the coalition fell short of keeping Sardinia, though it did manage to hold Basilicata in April. The European Parliament election of 8–9 June saw FdI reach almost 29% of votes, and the coalition surpassed 47%; an impressive result. The alliance also managed to hold the regional government of Piedmont.
Electoral successes, a stable executive (which is rare in Italy), and polished statesmanship have all contributed a positive public perception of Meloni on the international stage. Many consider her a more reputable far-right leader than veterans such as Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán.
However, domestic and international observers worry about some alleged threats to Italy's democratic foundations. These include perceived limitations on press freedom and attacks on critical voices, even in the academic realm. In June, the upper house approved the first reading of Meloni’s hallmark constitutional reform which would introduce the direct election of the Prime Minister, and greatly reduce the powers of the President (the Head of State).
Against this background, we have explored what Italians currently think about their democracy. In late May 2024, Polidemos, the Catholic University’s Centre for the Study of Democracy and Political Change, commissioned research institute Ipsos to survey a stratified proportional sample of 800 citizens.
For the survey, we built an index of anti-politics attitudes and democratic disenchantment. The former aggregates the measure of respondents’ agreement with the statements signalling distrust of the political class. The latter combines answers to a question about satisfaction with the way democracy works and the agreement on alternative ways to govern Italy.
We asked citizens if they would prefer to live in a democratic society characterised by various problems or in a dictatorial regime that guarantees sufficient well-being for everyone
We also developed a measure of authoritarian attitudes. We asked citizens, given the choice, what they would theoretically prefer. Would citizens prefer to live in a democratic society characterised by various problems? Or would they prefer to live in a dictatorial regime that guarantees sufficient well-being for everyone, where there are no problems to contend with?
The survey posed further questions to assess citizens' proximity to a non-democratic form of government. These questions were concerned with strong leadership, the priority for rulers’ authority over the rights of some citizens, and the freedom of the media to criticise the executive.
The results confirm long-term trends: 70% of respondents show anti-political attitudes and 52% are dissatisfied with the functioning of Italian democracy. At the aggregate level, however, anti-politics attitudes do not (yet?) result in preferences for authoritarianism. Most respondents are against authoritarianism, which is openly supported by only 9%. While right-leaning citizens tended to prefer anti-political attitudes in the past, nowadays they are among the least in favour of authoritarianism. Support for the incumbent executive appears to have had a moderating effect in this respect.
Millennials tend to favour authoritarianism to a greater extent, and to be less concerned about the current status of democracy
Despite very low trust in political parties and institutions, most Italians remain attached to democracy. Authoritarian attitudes are overrepresented among the unemployed, people in economic hardship, less-qualified salaried workers, and right-leaning citizens.
A surprising finding is that age matters. Millennials – who have long been a consistent driving force of far-right electoral success – tend to favour authoritarianism to a larger extent (14%) and to be less concerned about the current status of democracy. When asked about the likelihood of a return of fascism, respondents answered as shown in the table.
| Silent and Boomers | Generation X | Generation Y (Millennials) | Generation Z | |
| It is already happening | 29 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
| It is a real danger, but it is not happening right now | 16 | 17 | 23 | 25 |
| It is only a theoretical possibility, not a real risk | 34 | 22 | 23 | 27 |
| It wouldn't be bad | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Don't know | 14 | 33 | 32 | 18 |
In line with authoritative analyses, we do not see signs of Italians’ perceptions of democracy being at risk. Pro-democracy attitudes remain strong in a country which has been ruled by populist parties for nearly two years.
Given the context of the widespread surge of the radical right in Europe and the retrenchment of political rights and civil liberties across the globe, this might sound like reassuring news for democrats. However, pro-democracy attitudes appear less entrenched in generations Y and Z. As these younger generations replace the older ones, the health of democracy may indeed be at risk.
