Christian Oswald
Regularly updated data sources with global coverage are essential for (near) real-time forecasting. Christian Oswald and Daniel Ohrenhofer introduce Wikipedia as a new data source for conflict forecasting due to its ability to capture the salience and controversy of a topic Read more
Aydin Salimli
The international ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war present tough choices for Russia, according to Aydin Salimli. These include NATO’s expansion, Central Asia's search for new transit routes to sell their gas and oil, and the growing role in the region of both Turkey and the United States Read more
Alexandr Burilkov
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine reduced to a protracted battle for the Donbas, discontent grows in Russian military and ultranationalist circles. This could lead to the formation of paramilitary groups aiming for a Russia of the revolutionary right, says Alexandr Burilkov Read more
Ian Budge
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reduced media coverage of the political violence and turmoil elsewhere in the world caused by climate change, as well as causing a retreat on climate change policy targets by richer democracies. Ian Budge highlights what needs to be done and how Read more
Albrecht Rothacher
Albrecht Rothacher argues that the Russian experience of invading Ukraine has caused China to rethink its militaristic intentions regarding Taiwan. What once might have been perceived as a ‘solution’ to the Taiwanese problem now looks unfeasible in the light of Ukraine’s and the West’s response to Russian aggression Read more
Richard Sakwa
Richard Sakwa argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the culmination of a long period of increasing tensions between Russia and the West. The portents were not only ignored by the West, but misunderstood, and security concerns became part of a broader cultural alienation Read more
Oliver P. Richmond
Global ideological struggle and counter-peace processes have had grave consequences for the international peace architecture. Oliver P. Richmond and Sandra Pogodda highlight the need for a knowledge-based, emancipatory renewal Read more
Hager Ali
Years of austerity has stifled Germany’s army, the Bundeswehr, but Hager Ali argues that money is the least of it. Salvaging the Bundeswehr means reconfiguring German military professionalism – and fixing its relations with the public Read more
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