Why Syrian refugees are unlikely to return home

Syrian refugees face multiple challenges in returning to their homeland. The threat of direct violence may have ended, but the destruction of infrastructure, along with social and economic instability, make return unlikely. Ümit Seven explains how prolonged displacement has led many Syrians to rebuild their lives elsewhere. These refugees, he argues, have created a 'pragmatic home' in host countries

You might imagine that a refugee's decision to return after forced migration is rooted only in their yearning for the home they have left behind. In reality, however, many such decisions are influenced heavily by other factors, including politics and security. For displaced Syrians, the idea of 'home' encompasses material and non-material elements. It includes memories, relationships, and the fabric of social and economic conditions tied to that specific space. 'Home' is thus more than simply a place of residence.

Assad's brutal rule has ended, and returning refugees may no longer face the threat of physical violence. But refugees' decision on whether or not to return depends upon the conditions that make 'home' possible.

Devastation and instability

The immense devastation of Syria’s conflict triggered the largest refugee crisis since World War II. More than half of Syria’s population were forced from their homes and more than 400,000 lives were claimed.

Beyond the staggering human cost, the physical destruction has been catastrophic. A 2017 World Bank report revealed that nearly a third of Syria's housing stock, along with half of its medical and educational facilities, have been destroyed. Targeted attacks on health infrastructure, requisitioning of schools by the military, and fuel shortages, have rendered some cities uninhabitable. The collapse of economic sectors has further compounded the challenges of returning. Olive trees, for example, are one of Syria’s most significant agricultural products. Hundreds of thousands have been cut down — either by fighters deliberately destroying vital food supplies, or by desperate citizens burning them as fuel.

Nearly a third of Syria's housing stock, along with half of its medical and educational facilities, have been destroyed

Hostility and insecurity persist in Syria, exacerbated by the looming threat of a Turkish-backed assault on areas controlled by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party. Multiple armed groups, especially insurgent factions from the south, continue to operate across the country. Syria remains littered with deadly unexploded ordnance, compounding the danger for returning refugees.

What prompts a decision to leave?

Syrians began fleeing to Turkey as early as April 2011. By 2016, nearly three million remained there under temporary protection. I researched the decision-making process that led Syrians to leave their homeland. Doing so has offered me valuable insight into the complex dynamics around whether people decide to return, or to remain.

While 2013 marked the deadliest year in Syria, the number of refugees surged significantly after 2015. The numbers reveal that people flee not only because they fear violence but because they lack infrastructure, services, and jobs. Emotional ties to home, however, are also a major factor in decision-making. For refugees, navigating these conflicting choices is a profound and multifaceted challenge.

In wartime, people flee their homes not only because they fear violence, but because they lack infrastructure, services, and jobs

Once refugees have left, the question of how they return becomes complex. Externally displaced refugees spend, on average, 20 years outside their home country. Internally displaced persons remain displaced for roughly ten years. The Syrian civil war persisted for over 14 years. Many displaced Syrians have therefore already rebuilt their lives and established new communities beyond their homeland.

Putting down roots

As Syrians grapple with the physical destruction of a spatial home, along with the loss of their memories and cultural heritage, many have worked to rebuild a home in host countries, particularly in Turkey. Even in refugee camps, Syrians have established social, economic, and cultural ties to create themselves a 'home'. According to Turkish migration statistics, around 1.5 million Syrians in the country are aged 24 or younger. Syrian women have a typical fertility rate of 5.3, so the second-generation Syrian population is likely to expand rapidly.

And the connections run deeper than mere numbers. Syrians are learning the language, working alongside locals, and building businesses, weaving themselves into the fabric of Turkish society. Through daily interactions, Syrians are putting down roots, even as they retain complex emotional ties to their homeland. They are caught between longing for the past and creating a future in a new land.

Syrians are learning the language and building businesses, weaving themselves into the fabric of Turkish society

This process of integration is not without challenges. Public attitudes in Turkey have shifted from initial hospitality to increasing hostility. Economic downturns and political tensions have fuelled anti-refugee sentiment. Restrictions on formal employment mean that many Syrians are forced to take informal, cash-in-hand work. Educational access, too, remains a persistent problem. More than half of school-age Syrian children did not attend school during the 2015–16 academic year. In 2016–17, 40% remained unenrolled.

Pragmatic acceptance of home

Despite the challenges they face in host countries, most Syrians have little prospect of returning to their homeland. The UN reports that around 200,000 refugees have returned to Syria since the fall of the Assad regime. This represents only a small fraction, however, of the nearly six million who have fled the country since the outbreak of war. Many who long to return are deterred by persistent instability and lack of infrastructure. Even internally displaced Syrians cannot return to their towns and villages because of bomb damage, and lack of basic services.

So, as the destruction of their homeland's social fabric continues, displaced Syrians are finding ways to integrate and adapt. Where, in the past, they may have regarded displacement as a temporary predicament, they are now beginning to put down roots. This shift reflects the complex realities of exile, where survival and the creation of a new life sometimes outweigh the desire to return. Many Syrians have resigned themselves to acceptance of their host country as 'home', not as a political concept tied to the country they left, but as a reality rooted in the spaces they now inhabit.

This article presents the views of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the ECPR or the Editors of The Loop.

Author

photograph of Ümit Seven
Ümit Seven
Postdoctoral Researcher, Middle East Technical University

Ümit holds a PhD in Area Studies from Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

His research focuses on forced displacement, humanitarian action, and the intersection of governance and sovereignty in conflict-affected countries.

His most recent research examined how the Syrian regime used state violence and bureaucratic obstacles to assert control over humanitarian aid, compelling organisations like the United Nations to navigate and reinforce its sovereignty in the Syrian civil war.

Ümit has been a Guest Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich and a Visiting Doctoral Researcher at Sciences Po in Paris.

With over a decade of experience in international organisations, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Food Programme (WFP), he has contributed to humanitarian and development efforts in Turkey.

Earlier in his career, he worked as an Aide to ISAF’s Regional Command in Kabul, Afghanistan, supporting high-level military operations and strategic decisions.

umit7.com

@umitsevenIV

@useven.bsky.social

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