Aida Halilovic
Aida Halilovic argues that Putin’s (flawed) narrative of his invasion of Ukraine is best understood through a historical lens. She highlights the substantial minorities who now live in non-kin states in Europe, and their place in the security landscape of Europe To understand Russia’s rhetoric, it is important to grasp the role that minorities have […] Read more
Daniel Buarque
President Jair Bolsonaro has changed the priorities and alignments of Brazil's international positions, picked fights with historic allies, and threatened important economic relations, writes Daniel Buarque. These developments have changed the international status of Brazil and risk making the country a pariah Read more
Zarina Burkadze
Promoting democracy without challenging external autocratisers and checking local democratic elites may be counterproductive, argues Zarina Burkadze. Great power competition has always had an impact on the domestic politics of small nations, and this is apparent in the conflicts and international politics of today Read more
Raza Rahman Khan Qazi
Pakistan’s foreign policy over the decades has proved disastrous for the country and has had a profound negative impact on the South Asian region, argues Raza R. Khan Qazi. Its policy has had a consistently conservative formulation based on purely realist objectives, with no place for liberal ideals and goals Read more
Nitesh Anchan
Russia justified its invasion of Ukraine mainly on political grounds, but also claimed a cultural reason: the construction of a Eurasian civilisation. To Nitesh Anchan and Priya Vijaykumar Poojary, the Russia-Ukraine war signifies that global politics in the 21st century will be dominated by the rhetoric of the civilisation state Read more
Paul Whiteley
Paul Whiteley, assessing Russia's difficulties and Putin's potential next steps in the offensive against Ukraine, wonders whether it is time for NATO to issue a nuclear guarantee to Ukraine in order to prevent a further escalation of the conflict Read more
Veronica Anghel
The credibility of EU membership for Ukraine and Moldova depends on how flexible member states are with the criteria for entry and the notion of full membership. Veronica Anghel and Erik Jones, drawing on analysis of previous enlargements, show that the flexibility can be considerable Read more
Christian Oswald
Regularly updated data sources with global coverage are essential for (near) real-time forecasting. Christian Oswald and Daniel Ohrenhofer introduce Wikipedia as a new data source for conflict forecasting due to its ability to capture the salience and controversy of a topic Read more
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