Opposition parties are expected to challenge the government, but they do not simply oppose for opposition's sake. Drawing on over 75 years of data, Rick van Well explains that when deciding how to behave in parliament, opposition parties make strategic trade-offs between winning votes, entering the government, and influencing policy
We tend to think of opposition parties as the natural adversaries of government. After all, their job is to hold the government to account, scrutinise policies, and present alternatives. But in many parliaments, opposition parties regularly vote in favour of government bills. This is not necessarily a sign of a weak opposition: it often is a deliberate strategy.
In my recent Open Access study of over 75 years of parliamentary votes across four parliamentary democracies (Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom), I find that opposition parties balance three competing goals – winning votes, entering government, and influencing policy – to determine whether to oppose or support the government on any given bill.
Opposition parties walk a tightrope. On the one hand, they want to stand out from the government to win future elections. On the other hand, they may want to demonstrate that they can be reliable partners in government or influence policy, even from outside the cabinet.
Opposition parties walk a tightrope: they want to stand out from the government, but simultaneously to demonstrate they can be reliable partners in government, and influence policy
Using a classic framework from political science that breaks down party goals into votes, office, and policy, I show that these goals often pull opposition parties in different directions. Depending on the issue at stake and the institutional context, opposition parties sometimes find it more advantageous to support rather than oppose.
Voting against the government is one of the most visible forms of opposition. It sends a strong signal to voters and the media. But that does not mean it is always the smartest strategy. Take minority governments, which are common in countries like Denmark and Canada. These governments need opposition support to pass laws. That gives opposition parties leverage. In return for their votes, they can secure policy concessions. Supporting the government in these cases does not mean giving in. It can mean getting something tangible in return.
| Opposition goal | Behaviour in parliament |
|---|---|
| Winning the next elections (votes) | Oppose the government |
| Replacing the government (office) | Oppose the government |
| Joining the government (office) | Support the government |
| Exerting policy influence (policy) | Support the government |
Not all bills are created equal. Interestingly, my research shows that internal divisions within the government also shape opposition tactics. When governing parties disagree on an issue, opposition parties can amplify those divisions by voting against a bill, drawing attention to government disunity.
When governing parties disagree on an issue, opposition parties can amplify those divisions by voting against a bill, drawing attention to government disunity
It is an opposition tactic used mainly to embarrass the government and sow discord among coalition partners, especially when early elections are a real possibility.
The behaviour of opposition parties with ambitions to enter government depends on a country’s structure of competition for power. In countries like the United Kingdom or Canada, where two parties typically alternate in power, opposing the government makes sense. It helps to create a clear alternative and attract disillusioned voters.
But in the Netherlands, where coalitions are more fluid, and former rivals often govern together, being too antagonistic can backfire. Fierce criticism risks alienating future coalition partners. Here, to show they can work together and be taken seriously as potential stablemates, opposition parties that hope to join the next government behave in less adversarial fashion.
Being in opposition is not easy. The decision to support or oppose a government bill is often not only about the bill itself. It reflects a party’s long-term goals, its role in the party system, and the dynamics of coalition politics. Parties use their votes in parliament to shape how voters see them, what policies they can influence, and where they might end up after the next election.
An opposition party's decision to support or oppose a government bill is often not only about the bill itself, but about party’s long-term goals and the dynamics of coalition politics
Understanding these dynamics helps us to see the opposition not just as antagonists, but as active players shaping policy and future governments. As voters and observers, we should look beyond the headlines of conflict and consider the strategic logic underneath.
