Despite the war — and uneven compliance with the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement — Ukraine is still striving to implement the European Green Deal. Why? Karina Shyrokykh explains how anticipatory and instrumental logics shape Ukraine's compliance with the Green Deal, and help Ukraine implement the Association Agreement
The EU’s cooperation with its neighbours on environmental and climate issues dates back to the 1990s. At that time, the Partnership and Cooperation Agreements signed with former Soviet republics included environmental protection and climate change mitigation objectives.
Since then, as regional cooperation has deepened and the EU’s environmental and climate policies have evolved, climate issues have gained increasing importance in EU-Ukraine relations. The 2014 Association Agreement (AA) between the EU and Ukraine marked a turning point, significantly shaping Ukraine’s approach to environmental and climate governance. The provisions of the European Green Deal (EGD) further strengthen this cooperation.
The EU’s Green Deal aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050
The EGD is a major environmental and climate policy framework with the overarching goal of making Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. While many member states are pursuing its objectives enthusiastically, the EGD also has more far-reaching ambitions.
For example, the EU has pledged to support partner countries in upgrading and implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of international climate negotiations, enhancing renewable energy and energy efficiency, preserving biodiversity, fostering circular and low-carbon economies, improving resource management, and addressing pollution, waste, and sanitation.
Notably, the EU has earmarked 25% of the 2021–2027 Green Deal budget to support climate objectives in the EU neighbourhood and other partner countries. Despite the EU's insufficient institutional framework for implementing the external dimension of the EGD, Ukraine is gradually preparing for alignment with the Green Deal's provisions.
Compared with other regional non-EU neighbours, Ukraine ranks highest for environmental protection, particularly the quality of its environmental regulation. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion, renewable energy generation in Ukraine was on the rise. Solar and wind power, for instance, accounted for around 12.4% of the country’s capacity in 2020.
Despite the invasion, Ukraine has pushed on with environmental and climate legislative reforms. However, Ukraine has delayed some green transition policies. For example, reports under the Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system — mandatory since 2021 and initially due in 2022 — have been postponed. Similarly, adoption of the Implementation Action Plan for the Nationally Determined Contribution, which outlines steps toward fulfilling Ukraine’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, has also been delayed.
Compared with other regional non-EU neighbours, Ukraine ranks highest in environmental protection, leading in the quality of its environmental regulation
The AA has served as a key framework for Ukraine’s alignment with EU regulations on environment and climate. At the same time, Ukraine has increasingly referenced the Green Deal in shaping its governance in this area. For example, in 2023, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted the Action Plan for the Implementation of Foreign Policy Strategy, which outlines steps toward implementing the Green Deal.
It is noteworthy that even though Ukraine has yet to fully implement the AA, it is already adopting policies in line with the more ambitious Green Deal framework. Though compliance with the Green Deal is not currently part of the EU’s formal conditionality for accession, Ukraine continues its gradual alignment with the Deal's provisions.
In my research with Olga Melen-Zabramna, we identify two parallel mechanisms driving the Europeanisation of Ukraine’s environmental and climate policy: instrumental compliance with the provisions of the AA and anticipatory compliance with the norms of the EGD, aimed at future EU integration and post-war recovery.
The first follows a cost-benefit logic — Ukraine, aspiring to join the EU, complies with AA obligations. The second is rooted in strategic planning amid uncertainty. Facing prolonged and uncertain EU integration (2014–2022), a full-scale war (2022–present), and deep political and economic dependency on the EU, Ukraine’s government recognises the importance of aligning with both current and emerging EU policies.
Ukraine faces prolonged and uncertain EU integration, full-scale war, and deep political and economic dependency on the EU
Together, these two mechanisms — instrumental and forward-looking — shape Ukraine’s Europeanisation in the environmental and climate domain. Anticipatory compliance, in particular, is highly relevant under wartime conditions for two reasons. First, environmental and climate policy inherently requires long-term planning under uncertainty. Second, the ongoing war implies unpredictable outcomes — not just for the scale of destruction, but for when post-war rebuilding can start, and how it will affect Ukraine’s EU accession.
In the grip of war, Ukraine recognises the EU as its key economic partner, and understands its need to align with the Green Deal, a core part of the EU’s development model. Ukraine also recognises that post-war reconstruction depends on this alignment. Together, these factors are driving the Europeanisation of Ukraine's wartime environmental and climate policies.
