From escalating trade wars with the EU to snap ultimatums on Iran, Donald Trump's international playbook is startlingly predictable. Trump seeks not agreement, but surrender. Shamsoddin Shariati explains how Europe must now learn from this pattern, and respond with firmness, not concession
Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose 250% tariffs on EU pharmaceuticals, in clear violation of a freshly signed trade agreement, may seem shocking. But much like his approach during nuclear negotiations with Iran, and in EU-US trade talks, his actions align with a predictable Trump playbook. If Europe learns from Trump’s strategy and stands firm, it can withstand the ongoing tariff dispute with the US.
Signature features of the Trump playbook include setting ultimatums, threatening the opposing party, then conducting negotiations under the escalating pressure of those threats. The real aim of his negotiations is not to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, but to impose his demands unequivocally, and tie them up with a performative 'big win'.
Trump sets ultimatums, threatens the opposing party, then conducts negotiations under the escalating pressure
On 27 July 2025, Presidents von der Leyen and Trump signed a trade agreement that capped US tariffs on EU goods at 15%, including pharmaceuticals. Yet just days later, on 5 August, Trump declared that pharmaceutical tariffs could rise to 250%. This reversal is consistent with his pressure-first approach.
The trade negotiations began in April, following Trump’s initial announcement of 25% tariffs on Europe. He then paused implementation for three months — an implicit ultimatum designed to force EU compliance. In early July 2025, EU leaders described trade negotiations with the US as progressing positively. But on 13 July 2025, Trump suddenly announced 30% tariffs on European goods, effective from August. Under this pressure, the EU — like Japan and South Korea before it — reluctantly accepted the 15% ceiling.
The parallels with Iran are striking. On 13 June 2025, in the midst of ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched a military offensive against Iran. The United States joined the conflict nine days later, on 22 June. These negotiations had begun after Trump issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran. On the 61st day, the war began, with the approval and support of the US administration. It reflects the same pattern seen in Trump’s dealings with the EU: escalating pressure during or even after negotiations.
Trump's objective was never a reciprocal deal with Iran. Instead, he sought Iran's complete dismantling of its nuclear facilities
Trump's objective was never a reciprocal deal during the 60-day negotiations. Instead, he sought Iran's complete surrender to his illegal demands to dismantle their nuclear facilities. America's 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, took 18 months of intense negotiations to achieve. This time around, Trump merely offered the Iranians a two-month ultimatum to surrender entirely to his demands. Iran refused to capitulate, showing Trump that's not the way it works.
The costly strikes on Iran yielded little strategic benefit to the US, and resulted in vast economic loss to Israel. Indeed, recent reports indicate that US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, rather than 'obliterating' them, merely delayed their progress by a few months. Furthermore, Iran has ceased cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Iranian parliament is reportedly preparing legislation to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Vladimir Putin appears to have found some success in dealing with Trump, and Trump has used his personal relationship with Putin to portray himself as a peacemaker. But Putin has also turned Trump's tactics against him, launching attacks on Kyiv just hours after joining the US in peace talks. This is a pattern Putin has repeated multiple times.
On four occasions, Trump assumed he had reached a deal with Russia. Putin deceived him every single time, initiating some of his most significant attacks against Ukraine during those so-called 'peace talks'. Over the past six months, Putin's manipulation of Trump has reduced American support for Ukraine. Indeed, in March 2025, Trump's actions resulted in the return of the Kursk region, previously occupied by Ukraine, to Russia.
Putin has turned Trump's tactics against him, launching attacks on Kyiv just hours after joining him in peace talks
After his playbook failed, Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum for a peace agreement with Russia. If the Russians failed to comply by the deadline, he threatened secondary tariffs. Trump will likely fail again. Putin's predictable response has been renewed attacks, coupled with threats of nuclear strikes.
At the core of Trump's international strategy is a zero-sum worldview. He perceives nearly every human endeavour as a conflict in which for one party to win, another must lose. This conviction negates the possibility of win-win deals or agreements, even with old allies. Donald Trump's bestselling book, The Art of the Deal, reveals the author's mindset: for him, negotiation is warfare. The book advocates for making extreme demands, bluffing about resources or the willingness of other investors to intervene, and even employing psychological tricks like 'artificial deadlines' to unnerve adversaries.
The objective is not mutual satisfaction, but to extract maximum value from the other party, to their detriment. Such tactics manifest in Trump's tariff wars and negotiations: intimidating opponents with ultimatums, issuing threats, and creating confusion to force compliance. Trump's ultimate goal is to present supposedly 'big wins' to his supporters — and then to boast about them afterwards.
If Europe gives in to Trump’s demands, it will only encourage further escalation. After accepting a 15% tariff to avoid a 30% one, Trump broke the deal and threatened a 250% tariff on pharmaceuticals. Each concession strengthens his position and boosts his Republican allies' prospects. But if Europe stands firm, Trump’s voter base may begin to feel the impact of rising prices, weakening his support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
While resisting Trump may be costly in the short term, it sends a clear message to him — and future leaders — that bullying tactics will not succeed. As Jean-Luc Demarty, former Director-General for Trade at the European Commission, put it, 'Europe must put its gun on the table for the tariff negotiation with Trump.'
