James F. Downes argues that the 2025 German election has upended decades of stability: the CDU’s rightward pivot and the AfD’s historic surge have left a fragmented parliament. With the SPD’s progressive coalition shattered, a shaky 'Grand Alliance' offers minimal respite. Germany’s turmoil threatens EU unity — and its own democratic foundations
The winds of political change are sweeping over Germany in the aftermath of the 2025 federal election. Once a bastion of stability, the EU’s largest economy now faces a perfect storm of economic stagnation, political polarisation, and rising right-wing populism focused on curbing immigration.
The election results marked a major political upheaval. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) continued its rise, gaining 20.8% of the overall vote share and 152 seats in the German Parliament (Bundestag). Results also revealed the widespread electoral decline of the centre-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), which obtained only 16.4% of the vote share, and 120 seats.
The far-right AfD continued its rise, gaining 20.8% of the vote share, and 152 seats in the Bundestag
The centre-right Union parties, the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU) and the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (CSU), were the biggest winners, achieving 28.5% of the vote share and 208 seats in the Bundestag.
| Political party | Leader | % Vote share | Seats |
| CDU/CSU | Friedrich Merz | 28.5% (+4.4%) | 208 (+11) |
| AfD | Alice Weidel | 20.8% (+10.3%) | 152 (+69) |
| SPD | Olaf Scholz | 16.4% (-9.3%) | 120 (-86) |
| The Greens | Robert Habeck | 11.6% (-3.1%) | 85 (-33) |
| Die Linke | Jan van Aken and Heidi Reichinnek | 8.8% (+3.9%) | 64 (-25) |
| FDP | Christian Lindner | 4.3% (-7.1%) | 0 (-91) |
When Olaf Scholz’s SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (the Greens), and Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) formed their 'traffic light' coalition in 2021, they promised a progressive reset after 16 years of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist conservatism. Just over three years later, the 2025 election result has blown their alliance apart.
The Greens' approval ratings had previously been on a downward trajectory amid a backlash over costly energy reforms and a botched phaseout of nuclear power. Meanwhile, the pro-business FDP became collateral damage in Germany’s economic slump, with voters likely blaming Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s austerity measures for deepening the recession. The SPD fared only slightly better, its traditional working-class base having been eroded by inflation and an ongoing housing crisis.
The centre-right CDU/CSU has capitalised on the coalition government’s misfires. Leader Friedrich Merz, a fiscal hawk with a recent penchant for anti-immigrant rhetoric, has rebranded the party for disillusioned moderates. Merz’s pledge to slash corporate taxes and deport 'non-integrated migrants' (a nod to the 2.1 million asylum seekers who have arrived since 2022) played well in small towns and suburbs.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, a fiscal hawk with a penchant for anti-immigrant rhetoric, has rebranded the party for disillusioned moderates
But Merz’s strategy carries risks. Merz’s hardline stance on Russia — he recently called to halt arms shipments to Ukraine — has alarmed NATO allies. Meanwhile, Bavaria’s CSU, fearing further losses to the AfD in the future, is now likely to pressurise Merz into adopting even tougher immigration policies.
The real shock of the 2025 German elections was the AfD’s continuing rise. Leading in Eastern Germany, the far-right party has expanded beyond its nationalist core. A rebranding campaign, led by co-chair Alice Weidel, has softened AfD's image (fewer rallies, more TikTok influencers) while doubling down on anti-EU and climate-sceptic messaging.
Key to the AfD’s appeal is economic despair, particularly in Eastern Germany. In former industrial heartlands such as Saxony-Anhalt, where youth unemployment remains sky-high, the AfD’s ideological combination of welfare populism ('German jobs for German workers') and anti-immigration messaging has struck a chord.
Only one viable coalition government scenario now appears likely. A revival of the SPD-CDU/CSU 'Grand Coalition' is emerging as the most probable outcome, particularly after CDU leader Friedrich Merz ruled out coalition with the AfD, and announced his intention to form a government before Easter. A CDU-led administration under Merz would likely shift Germany toward fiscal restraint, further weakening key EU policy initiatives such as the European Green Deal.
A revival of the SPD-CDU/CSU 'Grand Coalition' is likely the only viable coalition government scenario
Meanwhile, the AfD’s electoral breakthrough will embolden far-right parties across Europe — including in France, Italy, Hungary, and Sweden — while further straining Western unity on support for Ukraine.
James researches the rise of populist radical-right parties in Western and Central-Eastern Europe, alongside the key issue of immigration (right-wing party competition).
His current research investigates the macro-economic effects of China's BRI, alongside EU-China Relations and EU-Governance within the fields of comparative politics and international relations.
James is also a Research Fellow at the Global Europe Centre (University of Kent/Brussels School of International Studies) alongside the Far-Right Analysis Network (FRAN) and for the Center for Research & Social Progress (Italy).
He was formerly a Visiting Scholar at the European Union Academic Programme Hong Kong.
James's recent research publications have appeared in the Journal of Common Market Studies and Electoral Studies, among others.
His recent media interviews relating to European politics and Brexit have appeared in international media outlets including CNBC, CNN and South China Morning Post (SCMP).
The Rise of the Radical Right in Italy
ibidem Press/Columbia University Press, 2024
