The new German Bundestag will be smaller and more right-wing wing. And it will be more male-dominated. Corinna Kröber and Lena Stephan discuss how the political shift to the right and the new electoral law have influenced this trend, and the potential long-term consequences for women’s political representation in Germany
In Germany's national elections on 23 February 2025, only 32.38% of those elected were women, compared with 35.20% in 2021. To a certain extent, the 3% drop in women's representation is the result of political majorities shifting to the right.
In 2021, parties on the right of the ideological spectrum (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands/CDU, Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern/CSU, FDP, and Alternative für Deutschland/AFD) together attracted 50% of the vote. In 2025, despite the Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) failing to surpass the 5% threshold, the combined vote share of the CDU, CSU and AfD amounted to 57%.
The parties that have gained strength traditionally have the lowest proportion of women. Only 23% of CDU representatives, 25% of CSU representatives, and just 12% of AfD representatives are women. In contrast, left-leaning parties have significantly higher shares of women, with 42% for the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands SPD, 56% for Die Linke, and 61% for Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (the Greens).
| CDU | CSU | AfD | SPD | Greens | Die Linke | FDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women elected in 2021 | Share direct mandates | 16.67 | 20.93 | 12.5 | 31.93 | 60 | 33.33 | |
| Share list mandates | 38.10 | 12.86 | 56.25 | 57.94 | 56.41 | 24.24 | ||
| Total | 25.16 | 20.93 | 12.79 | 42.79 | 58.20 | 54.76 | 24.24 | |
| Candidates 2025 | Direct mandates | 23.81 | 25.53 | 12.88 | 37.79 | 48.48 | 32.88 | 19.40 |
| Promising direct mandates1 | 13.83 | 23.26 | 6.67 | 31.03 | 73.33 | 33.33 | ||
| Promising list mandates (traditional)2 | 36.51 | 11.43 | 47.92 | 61.68 | 53.85 | 28.28 | ||
| Promising list mandates (new electoral law)3 | 31.75 | 10.00 | 36.46 | 46.73 | 41.03 | 19.19 | ||
| Women elected 2025 | Direct mandates | 18.75 | 25.00 | 11.90 | 25.00 | 75.00 | 16.67 | |
| List mandates | 36.11 | 11.82 | 51.32 | 58.90 | 60.34 | |||
| Total | 22.56 | 25.00 | 11.84 | 41.67 | 61.18 | 56.25 |
However, even without ideological shifts, the proportion of women in the Bundestag would have declined as a result of the new electoral reform. In Germany, candidates are elected through two tiers. A first tier follows a first-past-the-post logic, with 299 MPs elected in single-member districts. A second tier follows a strictly proportional logic, with seats distributed proportionally to party vote shares and respective numbers of candidates entering parliament through state-level lists.
The new electoral law remains mixed-member proportional in character. Yet, seats won through second votes are initially allocated to those candidates elected on the first tier. Candidates from the second tier then fill the remaining seats. If a party reaches more seats on the first tier than on the second tier, first-tier winners with the smallest vote shares lose their seats. The Bundestag thus now has exactly 630 seats.
The new electoral reform fulfils the aim of decreasing the number of seats. But it has had unintended side-effects on women’s representation. The reform has reduced women’s chances of entering parliament through three mechanisms:
List-based seats are particularly beneficial for women. The decrease in list seats from 437 to 331 is detrimental to women, because they are much more likely to enter parliament via party lists than through direct mandates. In 2025, women won 40% of list seats but only 22% of direct mandates. This is because party decision-makers still often believe that women have lower chances of winning direct mandates.
As the number of list-based seats shrunk by about 100, competition for promising spots that ensured (re-)entrance into parliament was particularly fierce. Women often lost out. This is especially evident in the SPD's candidate lists.
In 2021, women won 58% of list seats. By 2025, this figure had dropped to 48% women candidates with similar list placements. In the end, only 51% of SPD list candidates elected in 2025 were women, down five percentage points from 2021. The CDU experienced similar trends (from 38% women elected on their lists in 2021 to 36% in 2025) and the AfD (from 13% to 12%). Only the Greens managed to increase the proportion of women on their lists by one percentage point, from 58% to 59%.
These examples show that parties which anticipate their chances of success accurately, and which prioritise gender parity in their candidate lists, can proactively influence how many women ultimately take seats in their parliamentary group.
Women are more likely to lose direct mandates because they are often elected with smaller majorities. The number of votes a candidate receives in a constituency is not independent of gender. Women systematically achieve worse results than men.
Research suggests this is not primarily because voters doubt women candidates' abilities. Rather, it is because women are often nominated in weaker electoral districts. In Germany, women secured only 22% of directly elected Bundestag seats. Yet women accounted for 35% of constituency winners whose seats were later revoked by the new electoral system. The effect is clear: women who win direct mandates have less chance than their male counterparts of entering the Bundestag.
Things could have been worse. If the CDU/CSU had achieved the 32% projected before the election – or if the FDP and/or Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) had entered the Bundestag – the proportion of women would have been even lower. Of the major parties with solid chances of making the 5% electoral threshold, these are the parties with the lowest shares of women candidates. Among FDP candidates, 20% are women, compared with 29% for BSW and 37% for CDU/CSU.
With 3% fewer women in the new Bundestag, women have less opportunity to advocate for their own interests. The CDU/CSU are the likely governing parties. So it is particularly concerning that women are significantly underrepresented in this coalition, because these parties directly influence legislation and cabinet appointments.
Fewer women in the governing majority leads to lower prioritisation of women's issues. It also weakens women's political networks in the long run, and reduces the number of women role models in politics. To counteract this, parity laws, internal party quotas, or positive incentives such as gender-based party financing, similar to Austria's model, could be helpful.
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