Milada Anna Vachudova argues that defending liberal democracy is essential to Europe's geopolitical power. EU enlargement and military investment must fill the security and values vacuum left by the United States in 2025
In my recent research with Nadiia Koval, we find Europe at a crossroads, facing its most profound security transformation since the collapse of communism.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has sharpened the links between integration, democratic values, and power. In 2025, the sudden authoritarian turn in Washington, marked by chaotic policy-making and overtures to dictators, has raised the stakes, forcing European governments to reckon with the risks of military weakness and strategic dependence. This has been driven home by the Kremlin's massive missile and drone attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities, encouraged by American indifference.
As they search for ways to strengthen Europe’s geopolitical agency, one imperative is clear: this project will only succeed if anchored in the defence of liberal democracy.
To build genuine geopolitical power, Europe must move beyond not just military weakness, but also the long-standing habits of political expediency and regime indifference. In the post WWII decades, the EU cultivated civilian, normative, and ethical forms of power — promoting liberal values abroad while relying on the United States for defence. Even after the EU’s failures during the Bosnian war spurred modest steps toward a common security and defence policy, military instruments remained an uneasy fit with its civilian self-image.
To build genuine geopolitical power, Europe must move beyond not just military weakness, but the long-standing habits of political expediency and regime indifference
Over time, political expediency in relations with authoritarian leaders came to dominate the foreign policy choices of key member states. In 2014, Europe largely looked away as Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine. 'The times of norms, values, and democracy-promotion are over', claimed the EU Global Strategy of 2016. EU leaders sought to curb Russian aggression by asking Ukraine to accept limitations on its own sovereignty. In tandem, they sought to deepen their lucrative relations with Russia, claiming that economic relations foster peace and boost bargaining power.
Whatever the theoretical arguments, some of which purported to have ethical undertones, the practical results were unequivocal: a stronger, more aggressive Russia, a weaker Ukraine, and a weaker EU.
Meanwhile, Russia’s long-term, determined and shockingly successful campaign to weaken Europe from the inside has found many willing helpers in the form of far-right and ethno-populist political parties ready to spread Kremlin disinformation and sow deep divisions in Europe.
In power, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has taken things a step further, working toward an EU that has abandoned liberal democracy as a core value and, instead, is institutionally indifferent to the regime types of its member states. Orbán, moreover, has, in his fight to strip the EU of its liberal democratic values and commitments, attempted to export his brand of authoritarian rule to other EU member states and candidates.
In 2025, Europe’s insecurity and America’s indifference (even complicity) in the face of Russian aggression are motivating European governments to take a stronger stand. Russia’s full-scale war and Ukraine’s steadfast response was already a watershed moment for the EU. With lightning speed, leaders scripted for the EU a central role in helping Ukraine fight the war and in building a new European security system. The EU responded to the shock of 24 February 2022 with its strongest and most daring enlargement and foreign policy response to date.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a watershed moment for the EU. Leaders responded with their strongest and most daring enlargement and foreign policy response to date
As Veronica Anghel argues in this series' foundational blog, enlargement has become a strategic necessity for the EU. Enlargement and defence allow the EU to project geopolitical power, even as it pursues a geopolitical market strategy to exploit the power of its vast internal market.
Many obstacles remain to effective European defence, independent of NATO. Critically, Brexit has fragmented Europe’s defence posture, prompting unsteady ‘coalitions of the willing.’ But European governments can immediately do more to help cripple Russia’s brutal war of conquest by imposing much tougher sanctions. They could, for example, lower price caps on Russian oil and further restrict Russia’s ability to use Western banks and obtain European military-ready products. The Russian threat to Europe’s security is still too often overlooked for reasons of economic and political expediency.
European governments must join forces, not only to counter Russian aggression, but to defend liberal democracy. Internally, the EU is slowly pushing back against Orbán — finding ways to weaken his regime's ability to extort the Union from within. As recent and near-term elections in Georgia, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary remind us, the fight for liberal democracy must be waged every day.
Reclaiming the primacy of liberal democratic values is essential to revitalising a purposeful, values-based accession process. Enlargement has been the EU’s most successful foreign policy tool — and it remains essential to building Europe’s geopolitical weight. A return to a values- and merit-based pre-accession framework can help strengthen democratic institutions, boost well-being, and reinforce the rule of law.
For candidates, membership offers security, prosperity, and legal protections. For the EU, it brings a larger internal market, greater defence capacity, and more influence on the global stage, expanding the Union’s capacity to project stability and influence.
Ukraine's integration would reinforce Europe’s democratic identity, create opportunities for innovation and investment, and deepen military cooperation with the most capable armed forces on the continent
As the United States turns inward and increasingly authoritarian, the EU has no choice but to step up — not just as a regional power, but as a geopolitical actor rooted in liberal democracy. As Maryna Rabinovych argues in her blog post in this series, this is also an opportunity for the EU. Ukraine, in particular, can play a pivotal role. Its integration would reinforce Europe’s democratic identity, extend the internal market, create opportunities for innovation and resilience in critical sectors, and deepen military cooperation with the most capable armed forces on the continent.
But the logic applies beyond Ukraine. If the EU is serious about shaping the future of the European order, it must treat enlargement not as a legacy policy, but as a core strategic tool for confronting autocracy, beyond and within its borders.
