Political parties frame the UK’s BNO visa scheme as a historical humanitarian responsibility towards Hong Kong in the context of UK-China relations. But is that really the case? James F. Downes and Kenneth Lai Kin-Pui analysed parliamentary speeches from 2019 to 2023. Their findings suggest the UK government uses BNO visas as a geopolitical tool
The UK government announced its British National (Overseas) (BNO) visa pathway in January 2021. Its scheme represented more than just a new immigration route. The policy is a window into the UK’s evolving sense of responsibility, the shifting tides of UK-China relations, and the politics of immigration in a post-Brexit world.
In 2019, widespread protests erupted in Hong Kong against the introduction of an extradition bill. In response, Boris Johnson's government in the UK created a pathway to settlement and citizenship for up to 2.9 million Hong Kong residents holding BNO passports.
This was a landmark move in British politics. Never had the UK government offered such a broad, preferential route to a specific group. It was particularly surprising given British citizens' increasing anti-immigrant sentiment.
UK politicians on all sides framed the BNO policy as a humanitarian response to democratic developments rooted in a sense of historical responsibility. In the debates we analysed, politicians repeatedly reference Britain’s colonial past and obligations under the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration. The UK government frames the BNO scheme as its moral duty.
The BNO scheme represents a 'reverse positioning' in UK immigration policy. For decades, British governments have tightened immigration controls, especially for people from former colonies. Former Prime Minister Theresa May's 'hostile environment' policy of the 2010s, for example, made life harder for migrants, and even legal residents.
For decades, British governments have tightened immigration controls, but the BNO scheme encourages a specific group to settle, work, and become citizens
The BNO scheme encourages a specific group to settle, work, and become citizens. The language politicians use with reference to the scheme is markedly different from the language they use in debates about other migrants or asylum seekers. They frame the BNO scheme not as a threat or burden, but a humanitarian obligation — a point of national pride.
The BNO scheme is not only about humanitarianism, but is deeply intertwined with the UK-China relationship. As relations have soured in recent years — over Hong Kong and over global competition — the UK government has used the BNO scheme to reassert its values on the world stage.
Our paper in Global Society qualitatively analysed 300+ UK parliamentary debates, from 2019–2023. Speeches demonstrated that governments have used the BNO to signal the UK’s stance on liberal democracy and the rule of law. The BNO visa is not just an immigration policy — it is a geopolitical tool allowing the UK to show its soft power on the world stage in the twenty-first century. We find that political debates have revealed an unusually strong consensus across the political spectrum, with little to no opposition.
A complex mix of nostalgia, guilt, and strategic calculation has shaped the UK’s approach to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) post-1997. By offering Hongkongers the BNO route, the UK can acknowledge its colonial legacy and redefine its global role in a post-colonial world.
Its actions are not without controversy. China has criticised the BNO scheme as not adhering to the terms of the handover agreement. It claims the scheme interferes in China's domestic internal affairs. The UK, meanwhile, insists that the scheme is merely upholding its historical commitments.
The impact of the BNO scheme is significant. Since 2021, Hongkongers have made up a sizeable portion of net migration to the UK. The trend looks set to continue. We cite surveys in our paper which show that over 40% of Hong Kong residents, driven by fears about the city’s political future, are considering emigration. As our paper demonstrates, the BNO scheme is a product of history, politics, and shifting global power dynamics.
Research finds that more than 40% of Hong Kong residents, driven by fears about the city’s political future, are considering emigration
Rollout of the BNO scheme was a rare moment in which moral responsibility and geopolitical strategy, rather than fear or a desire for exclusion, shaped the UK’s immigration policy. From the UK government's perspective, the scheme is a chance for the UK to show it can be principled and pragmatic: that the UK remembers its past, stands up for its values, and welcomes those in need.
Our paper’s main findings cover the period 2019–2023. They do not, therefore include developments under the Labour government that came to power in 2024. Keir Starmer's government has proposed significant changes to the BNO visa scheme. Most notably, it wants to extend the qualifying period for settled status from five to ten years. This would align it with broader immigration reforms aimed at tightening the UK’s migration system.
The UK government’s May 2025 White Paper stresses the need for a more controlled and selective immigration framework. It has not, however, explicitly exempted BNO visa holders from this extension. This has raised concerns among Hong Kong migrants who expected a faster path to settlement and citizenship.
A 2025 UK government White Paper calls for more selective immigration, but explicitly exempts BNO visa holders
Immigrants will typically have to live in the UK for ten years before they can apply to stay indefinitely. But Labour has suggested it may shorten this period for applicants who make significant contributions to the UK economy and society. Meanwhile, its lack of clarity means the roughly 200,000 BNO holders currently resident in the UK are living with uncertainty.
These changes reflect Labour’s broader immigration strategy. Starmer wants to create a 'managed, selective, and just' immigration system while maintaining the humanitarian intent of the BNO scheme. The extended settlement timeline does, however, mark a notable departure from the originally promised '5+1' pathway.
The BNO scheme is likely to change further in the coming years under the Starmer government. The UK government must navigate complex UK-China relations, alongside an unpredictable economic relationship under the second Trump administration.
