Albrecht Rothacher
Albrecht Rothacher contends that China’s recent threats towards Taiwan in response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit should not be taken at face value. An invasion of Taiwan would be a highly dangerous mission for China, carrying enormous costs for both China, the US and Europe Read more
Paul Whiteley
Paul Whiteley, assessing Russia's difficulties and Putin's potential next steps in the offensive against Ukraine, wonders whether it is time for NATO to issue a nuclear guarantee to Ukraine in order to prevent a further escalation of the conflict Read more
Simon Schunz
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine challenges the EU’s flagship ‘Green Deal’ project. Current measures to cope with rising energy prices and the risk of power cuts run counter to the Deal’s transformational logic. Simon Schunz argues that an alternative solution lies in understanding this crisis as a catalyst for Europe’s socio-ecological transition Read more
Christian Oswald
Regularly updated data sources with global coverage are essential for (near) real-time forecasting. Christian Oswald and Daniel Ohrenhofer introduce Wikipedia as a new data source for conflict forecasting due to its ability to capture the salience and controversy of a topic Read more
Ian Budge
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reduced media coverage of the political violence and turmoil elsewhere in the world caused by climate change, as well as causing a retreat on climate change policy targets by richer democracies. Ian Budge highlights what needs to be done and how Read more
Albrecht Rothacher
Albrecht Rothacher argues that the Russian experience of invading Ukraine has caused China to rethink its militaristic intentions regarding Taiwan. What once might have been perceived as a ‘solution’ to the Taiwanese problem now looks unfeasible in the light of Ukraine’s and the West’s response to Russian aggression Read more
Hager Ali
Years of austerity has stifled Germany’s army, the Bundeswehr, but Hager Ali argues that money is the least of it. Salvaging the Bundeswehr means reconfiguring German military professionalism – and fixing its relations with the public Read more
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