Liberal democracy is backsliding in another EU member state. After more than a decade of GERB-party governance in Bulgaria – along with the erosion of democracy and media freedom – the latest elections show how far the country is struggling to guarantee a free and fair election process. Dragomir Stoyanov and Milen Lyubenov take a deep dive
Bulgaria's political elites have consistently failed to create a sustainable government that meets the public's expectations for reform. This is posing severe challenges to democracy in the country.
Since Bulgaria's 2007 accession to the EU, and its fulfilment of accession criteria, liberal democracy has suffered. Through three GERB administrations, 2009–2021, the quality of democracy declined. Numerous reports have revealed constraints on media freedom, questions over the independence of the judiciary, and endemic corruption.
Since 2009, Bulgaria has suffered constraints on media freedom and endemic corruption
Over the past four years, the anti-corruption and reform-oriented political coalition PP-DB has been competing against reform-opposing GERB-SDS and DPS. Increasing party fragmentation has led to the blockage of important constitutionally established institutions. The Supreme Judicial Council, the Inspectorate of the Supreme Judicial Council and dozens of regulatory bodies have been working for years under an expired mandate, which undermines their legitimacy.
The most dangerous development, however, is failing confidence in the electoral process. According to 2023 Gallup International data, Bulgarians have the lowest trust in electoral integrity: only 10% of voters believe the country's elections are fair. The most recent elections only exacerbated the problem.
Back in July, the GERB-SDS coalition failed to form a government. The other status quo party, DPS, suffered a split, and snap elections were announced for October 2024.
The turnout at this election was just 38.9%, although this is slightly higher than the record-low turnout of the previous election, in June 2024. Bulgarians were expecting a fragmented political landscape, and the election results confirmed this. Eight parties succeeded in passing the 4% electoral threshold:
There was no significant change in vote ratio between the main parliamentary groups. GERB-SDS won 110,000 votes more than in the previous elections, but will have only one more MP. PP-DB regained second place and, despite the slight electoral increase, will have two fewer MPs. The far-right Revival has failed to increase its result in two consecutive elections because new populist contenders such as Morality, Unity, Honour (MECH) and Velichie (Greatness) have diluted the Revival vote. Despite BSP's change in leadership and a pre-electoral coalition with smaller left-wing parties, the party's vote share remained modest.
This election's most significant change is the split in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. The split is the result of a conflict between the oligarch Delyan Peevski, sanctioned by the US for corruption under the Global Magnitsky Act in 2021, and the honorary chairman and founder of DPS, Ahmed Dogan. Following the split, two formations took shape: DPS-New Beginning led by Peevski, and Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) led by Dogan. Many expected Bulgaria's Turkish minority would stand behind party founder Dogan, but the Peevski-led DPS-New Beginning coalition still managed to defeat the APS.
After the election, numerous reports of vote-count irregularities emerged. Public television channel BNT reported how, in just a few polling stations, 29 votes for the Velichie party, which would have been enough for it to enter parliament, were not counted correctly.
Since the election, numerous reports have emerged of irregularities in the vote count, and accusations of ballot-rigging
Other violations included the filling in of blank ballots for GERB-SDS and DPS-New Beginning by members of the sectional election commissions. Several parties demanded the election be scrapped. ITN, PP-DB, BSP and APS submitted complaints to the Constitutional Court, which must rule on the elections' legality.
Deep mistrust remains between Bulgaria's political parties. PP-DB have refused to participate in another coalition with GERB-SDS, because they do not believe Boyko Borisov's party will work to reform the judiciary or fight corruption.
Deep mistrust remains between Bulgaria's political parties
The other option is for GERB-SDS to propose a minority government supported by DPS-New Beginning, BSP and ITN. However, this would make GERB-SDS hostage to opportunistic majorities, which would weaken the party in the medium term and increase pressure from the liberal opposition, which enjoys strong support in the capital.
For Bulgarians, the prospects of a stable parliamentary majority remain dim. The reformist liberal-right PP-DB coalition emerged weakened after participating in two short-lived governments. GERB-SDS, meanwhile, did not seem inclined to reform the judicial system. An eighth election, which will render the country's political landscape even more chaotic and polarised, now seems likely.
Public anger can fuel support for the kind of new, anti-establishment political players who are breaking through more and more strongly at each subsequent election. If he wants to contest another election, incumbent President Rumen Radev must first resign his current post. Public pressure on him to create a new party with which to fight the next campaign may well grow too strong to ignore.
