After almost twenty years of democratic decline, in 2023, liberal democracy in Latin America appeared to be regaining strength. But has it managed to sustain the trend? Tim Pires Alves assesses whether recent developments heralded a new global wave of democratisation, or whether we merely glimpsed the calm before an even harsher autocratic storm
Since the mid-2000s, the world has experienced steady autocratisation. Major institutions monitoring democracy remain pessimistic about its future, especially given the ongoing democratic backsliding in regions such as Eastern Europe and North America.
Latin America, too, scarred by violent conflicts and social inequality, has long been the prime example of democratic decline under autocratic leaders such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Evo Morales in Bolivia. Yet, 2023 data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project suggested an end to the downward trend. Given the growing authoritarianism in El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela – which had been under way long before 2023 – this may seem surprising.
Latin America has a dynamic democratic history. Once the epicentre of mid-20th century military dictatorships, it later transformed into the flagship region of Samuel Huntington's Third Wave.
However, Latin America's euphoria for democratisation did not last long. In fact, Hispanophone consolidology even has its own term for this: desencanto – disenchantment. While most Latin American countries underwent a process of democratisation, only a couple could today be described as liberal democracies. With notable exceptions such as Chile and Uruguay, many countries became trapped in a liminal stage of dysfunctional democracy, leading to what Thomas Carothers calls 'cemented democratic transitions'.
A few years into the new millennium, many Latin American countries joined the global wave of de-democratisation
From around 2005, many Latin American countries joined the global wave of de-democratisation. Examples include Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022), Ecuador under Rafael Correa (2007–2017), and Nicaragua during Daniel Ortega's second presidency (since 2007). In all three cases, authoritarian policies dismantled civil liberties.
Between 2005 and 2022, the V-Dem Institute documents a 0.12 decline in liberal democratic quality in Latin America on a 0-1 scale (population weighted, model estimates). The same trend holds for V-Dem’s four other high-level democracy indices.
Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argued in 2018 that Western democracies are dying — a development Huntington conceptualised as a counter-wave of democracy. Have these deaths now peaked? The signs are not encouraging. Around the world, we see suspended elections in Burkina Faso, exclusion of minorities in Indonesia, restrictions on press freedom in Hungary and Russia, and government failure in South Korea. I could provide many more examples. According to V-Dem’s 2025 Democracy Report, 45 of the world's countries experienced autocratisation in 2024.
Interestingly, however, while democratic quality is in freefall worldwide, Latin America (excluding the Caribbean) experienced a reversal of this trend in 2023. That year, in V-Dem’s liberal dimension, democratic quality increased by 0.05 — its highest level since 2018 and an improvement not seen since 1990. Colombia was the primary force driving the trend. In 2023, Colombia achieved Freedom House’s 'Free' status for the first time, and has maintained it since. Brazil’s liberal democracy has also been steadily healing since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in 2022. Following a failed coup by Bolsonaro supporters in 2023, V-Dem recorded a substantial increase of 0.15.
While democratic quality in Latin America showed signs of improvement in 2023, the latest data indicates the region is re-autocratising, with a weakening rule of law, rising violence and corruption
These developments coincided with a general flattening of the global wave; the democracy curve no longer fell as steeply as it did after 2013. So, has democratic erosion finally come to an end? Has Latin America turned the corner?
Unfortunately not. Looking at the latest data, Latin America is re-autocratising, continuing the downward trajectory established until 2022. This is evidenced by a weakening rule of law, rising violence and corruption in Mexico and Peru, and a trend toward delegative democracy in Argentina, among other critical developments. The 2024 Democracy Report by The Economist highlights the public support for Nayib Bukele’s mass incarceration policy in El Salvador. Desencanto seems to be taking hold again.
While Latin America's 2023 improvement in democratic health was only a temporary trend, it remains noteworthy. Democracy evolves in waves that exhibit some noise, yet overall democratic trends remain largely robust, much like in an economic cycle. Thus, although Latin America is autocratising and in a phase of uncertainty again, this is unlikely to be a long-term trend.
However, Latin America's vacillating progression suggests that the assumptions of conventional transitology about political diffusion and spillover may no longer fully apply. In an era of populist authoritarianism, social media, and rising dissatisfaction with democracy, Latin American politics may be more complex than it was 40 years ago. Whether or not Huntington’s wave model endures, the region is already revealing its fragility.
Amid the dismantling of nearly two decades of representative democracy, Latin America is in a state of political contingency. On a broader temporal scale, the region is trending simultaneously toward democracy and autocracy, complicating any forecasts. Yet this is exactly the silver lining. Considering the region’s drastic transformations since the mid-1940s, present oscillations are interesting — and promising. Following post-transitional democratic consolidation, Latin America may now be entering a phase in which it gradually resists modern-day democratic breakdown. Brazil and Colombia are pioneering the trend.
Latin America is now in a state of political contingency, trending simultaneously toward democracy and autocracy
It seems unlikely that the Latin American wave of autocracy is about to break. Indeed, recent election results suggest otherwise. But perhaps, in a world of dying democracies, we heard a heartbeat.
