The recent municipal election results in North Rhine-Westphalia barely disguise Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s unpopularity. The result offers no respite for the CDU/CSU-SPD government at national level. Bold actions are needed domestically to tackle Germany’s deep and structural challenges, argues John Ryan
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has emerged as the strongest force in the North Rhine-Westphalian local elections, securing 33.3% of the vote. This represents a slight decline (-1.0%) compared with 2020 — the party’s worst-ever local result in the state. Despite this, CDU still held its ground as the clear winner. Yet this outcome is less a triumph for CDU leader and Chancellor Friedrich Merz than a reflection of the relative strength of regional leadership under Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.
The Social Democrats (SPD), with 22.1 (-2.2%), managed to avoid a complete collapse. But the party remains trapped in a long-term downward trajectory. SPD leader Bärbel Bas framed the result as less disastrous than feared, but this rhetorical damage limitation cannot conceal the fact that the SPD continues to lose support, particularly in its traditional heartland.
While CDU secured 33.3% of the vote in the recent North Rhine-Westphalian elections, the outcome is more of a triumph for Minister-President Hendrik Wüst's regional leadership than it is for Friedrich Merz
The Greens suffered a steep decline, falling to 13.5% — down 6.5 points since 2020. This result underscores the erosion of credibility within the regional governing coalition.
Die Linke received 5.6 (+1.8%) and the Free Democrat Party 3.7 (-1.9%).
By contrast, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has entrenched itself in the political landscape of Germany’s most populous state. With 14.5%, AfD was up 9.4% on its 2020 result, and advanced to several mayoral runoffs, including in Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg, and Hagen.
AfD’s rise can no longer be explained solely by regional disaffection with German unification or post-authoritarian political culture. The party's success reflects deeper structural frustrations that cut across the country. AfD is the second-strongest party in the Bundestag, and represented in all 16 regional parliaments. It now has representation in the largest state in Germany at municipal level.
The CDU’s narrative of composure after the election is understandable, but misleading. Even with its first-place finish, the party’s share is lower than in 2020 and was achieved despite, rather than because of, the federal government led by Chancellor Merz. Wüst can legitimately claim to have shielded the party in North Rhine-Westphalia from the drag exerted by Merz’s chancellorship. The dynamics of coalition politics in Berlin are likely to shift, as Wüst’s stronger hand in Düsseldorf gives him growing leverage in the national party.
The SPD, meanwhile, remains directionless, preferring to measure success against pre-election fears rather than confronting its own long-term structural decline. The Greens are paying the price of diminished credibility, while the FDP remains stuck in political irrelevance. Only AfD, which continues to turn discontent into votes, is visibly growing in strength.
By turning discontent into votes, AfD is the only party visibly growing in strength, as the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP all decline
In times of dissolving party ties, people matter; individual credibility and striking the right tone are crucial. There is no one in the new federal government who even remotely embodies personal trustworthiness and credibility. And the coalition certainly doesn't. That must change if the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition is to survive.
In the second round run-off on 28 September, AfD failed to win any of the mayor elections because of tactical voting. But this is by no means stopping the party becoming embedded in the largest state in Germany. The Greens had another poor result, winning only Münster.
In Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg, and Hagen, AfD candidates received between 21% and 33% of the vote in the run-off elections for mayoral offices. Meanwhile, in Dortmund, for the first time in almost eight decades, the CDU has a mayor. Alexander Omar Kalouti received 52.92% of the vote in the run-off election in North Rhine-Westphalia's third-largest city, replacing incumbent Thomas Westphal of the SPD, who received 47.08%. While this was a historic defeat for the SPD, the party can be pleased, after many years, to have reclaimed the mayoral post in Cologne, Germany's fourth-largest city.
Shortly before the local elections in the Rhine-Ruhr region — with 13.7 million eligible voters, the first serious test of the mood since the federal election — Merz had spoken of the need for consequences. After the election, Merz will from now on likely have to deal with an (even) more confident Hendrik Wüst (victorious in Düsseldorf and in Berlin) who rejoiced in the report from Berlin; 'We remain the number-one local party'.
Only around a fifth of Germans currently have a positive impression of Chancellor Merz’s commitment to economic policy. When asked whether Merz is addressing Germany's economic problems sufficiently, only 21% answered yes. The polling institute Forsa conducted a survey for the RTL/ntv trend barometer in June, in which 31% answered yes to that question. At the time, 59% felt Merz needed to pay more attention to the economic problems. Now, 74% think he does.
The message from voters in North Rhine-Westphalia is clear: the federal government coalition must now dare to take on the difficult challenges
And yet, there is some good news from this election. Turnout was decent for a local election, at just under 57%, significantly higher than the roughly 52% in 2020. Voters can be mobilised for politics. They also know that local elections are now about more than just local issues. They are also about the election itself, as an expression of a functioning and valued democracy. The CDU/CSU-SPD government in Berlin has a primary responsibility to be more active in policies and solutions for the German voters to see. The message from North Rhine-Westphalia, where AfD is enjoying success, is clear: the federal government coalition must now make decisions and dare to take on the difficult challenges. Germany needs neither commissions nor summits, but reforms from the Merz government.
