Christian Oswald
Regularly updated data sources with global coverage are essential for (near) real-time forecasting. Christian Oswald and Daniel Ohrenhofer introduce Wikipedia as a new data source for conflict forecasting due to its ability to capture the salience and controversy of a topic Read more
Aydin Salimli
The international ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war present tough choices for Russia, according to Aydin Salimli. These include NATO’s expansion, Central Asia's search for new transit routes to sell their gas and oil, and the growing role in the region of both Turkey and the United States Read more
Alexandr Burilkov
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine reduced to a protracted battle for the Donbas, discontent grows in Russian military and ultranationalist circles. This could lead to the formation of paramilitary groups aiming for a Russia of the revolutionary right, says Alexandr Burilkov Read more
Ian Budge
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reduced media coverage of the political violence and turmoil elsewhere in the world caused by climate change, as well as causing a retreat on climate change policy targets by richer democracies. Ian Budge highlights what needs to be done and how Read more
Albrecht Rothacher
he Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed Russia’s growing dependence on China, argues Albrecht Rothacher. China’s ambitions to displace the US as the main world power contrast vividly with Russia’s long-term stagnation and decline. It's a decline exacerbated by the latest Western economic sanctions Read more
Nikolaos Lampas
The alliance can reverse Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Turkey's behaviour rests on three needs: to secure economic concessions for its struggling economy, to acquire F-16 and F-35 fighter aircraft, and to reassert itself as a NATO powerbroker, writes Nikolaos Lampas Turkey’s objection to Sweden and Finland joining NATO Sweden and Finland's […] Read more
Albrecht Rothacher
Albrecht Rothacher argues that the Russian experience of invading Ukraine has caused China to rethink its militaristic intentions regarding Taiwan. What once might have been perceived as a ‘solution’ to the Taiwanese problem now looks unfeasible in the light of Ukraine’s and the West’s response to Russian aggression Read more
Ruairidh Brown
In our contemporary world, dangers frequently come not from external enemies but from our own behaviour. To provide moral guidance on these dangers and help overcome the externalisation of threat, Ruairidh Brown looks back through time to St Augustine Read more
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