Esra Serim argues that rapid advances in artificial intelligence-enabled drone technology significantly enhance nuclear weapon delivery, precision targeting, and deterrence capabilities. However, the proliferation of autonomous drone systems also introduces critical strategic and ethical challenges. To ensure global stability, we must create robust international frameworks
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, competition among major global powers over emerging technologies has intensified significantly. In particular, the conflict has accelerated investment in drone technologies. The United States, China, Russia, and various European countries have all identified such technologies as strategically vital.
Advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI), are becoming increasingly important to national defence strategies. This heightened reliance has amplified concerns over an accelerated arms race in weaponised drones. AI integration has substantially enhanced drone capabilities, enabling greater autonomy, precise mission execution, and sophisticated operational tasks.
In military contexts, AI-driven drones open new strategic possibilities for improved logistics and advanced reconnaissance, and could even deliver nuclear payloads
In military contexts, AI-driven drones mark a substantial technological shift. They open new strategic possibilities for improved logistics and advanced reconnaissance, and could even deliver nuclear payloads. Consequently, states are increasingly committed to developing and acquiring advanced drone capabilities, seeking to enhance national security, deter adversaries, and expand geopolitical influence.
Four interconnected factors explain states’ pursuit of advanced military technologies: pragmatism, perceptions of security threats, the strategic role of the arms industry, and the transformative influence of AI on global power dynamics.
From a pragmatic perspective, foreign policy is flexible, adaptive, and responsive to changing international and domestic circumstances. Pragmatism aligns closely with realist thinking, prioritising tangible outcomes and practical solutions. Accordingly, states develop their arms industries not only to maintain peace and deterrence but also to ensure they are prepared defensively if conflict arises.
Secondly, states’ perceptions of security threats profoundly influence international relations. Nations build economic and military power primarily for self-defence; however, such actions can appear aggressive to others, fuelling mutual suspicion and competitive arms buildups. Consequently, maintaining a robust arms industry becomes essential for states to protect sovereignty, sustain national security, and deter potential threats.
Thirdly, powerful states consistently seek opportunities to enhance their influence, especially during periods of conflict. Wars present strategic openings in which advanced military technologies can decisively increase a state's relative power. This can confer tactical advantages or new leverage in geopolitical competition.
AI makes sophisticated military capabilities more affordable and accessible, significantly increasing states’ military effectiveness and economic influence
Finally, the rapid rise of AI technology has introduced a new strategic frontier. AI makes sophisticated military capabilities more affordable and accessible, significantly increasing states’ military effectiveness and economic influence. As AI becomes integral to military operations, it reshapes national security strategies and accelerates decision-making processes in peace and wartime. This integration compels states to swiftly harness AI-driven advancements, redefining contemporary power competition.
AI-powered drones have become essential tools for modern warfare, as recent events in the Ukraine war vividly demonstrate. Equipped to carry out advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, these drones also hold potential for nuclear payload delivery. Their increasing integration into military operations boosts nuclear weapons' capability for precise, targeted and effective delivery.
Drones with advanced AI capabilities significantly enhance nuclear delivery by effectively countering enemy missile and air defence systems. Even without nuclear warheads, such drones can assist nuclear strike missions by deceiving, disrupting, or neutralising adversary defensive networks. Harnessing AI to exploit vulnerabilities in enemy defences, drones enable nuclear forces to penetrate hostile environments reliably and efficiently.
AI-enhanced drones also improve nuclear targeting by providing precise, real-time intelligence and detailed assessments of enemy weaknesses. Instead of relying on indiscriminate attacks, states can use drones to precisely identify strategic military targets. By so doing, they improve operational effectiveness and minimise collateral damage. Enhanced targeting accuracy allows states to deploy fewer warheads and delivery systems, thereby simplifying operations and, potentially, reducing maintenance costs.
Moreover, AI-driven drone technologies significantly strengthen nuclear deterrence by improving the survivability and resilience of nuclear arsenals. Persistent drone surveillance and rapid-response capabilities increase states’ capacity for early detection and swift reaction to incoming threats. This reinforces deterrence by guaranteeing credible second-strike capabilities, stabilising strategic relationships among nuclear-armed states.
The proliferation of autonomous, AI-driven drones and unmanned aerial vehicles is likely to significantly affect nuclear targeting, and deterrence. The integration of these technologies into nuclear command-and-control infrastructures could enhance states' nuclear response capabilities through improved surveillance, early warning, and precise counterforce targeting. Consequently, nuclear-armed states will need to carefully reassess their strategic doctrines, command protocols, and crisis management practices to accommodate these technological shifts and maintain nuclear stability.
Integrating autonomous drones into nuclear arsenals risks blurring distinctions between conventional military threats and genuine nuclear escalations
However, alongside these advances emerge strategic and ethical challenges specific to the nuclear domain. Increased autonomy in drone systems could inadvertently escalate nuclear tensions if AI-driven threat assessments misinterpret signals or inaccurately identify hostile intentions during crises. Rapid, opaque AI-based decision-making might undermine essential human oversight and judgment in nuclear operations, potentially disrupting adversaries' perceptions of nuclear stability and deterrence credibility. Moreover, integrating autonomous drones into nuclear arsenals risks lowering the threshold for nuclear engagement by blurring distinctions between conventional military threats and genuine nuclear escalations.
The operational reliability of AI-enabled drones in nuclear environments remains uncertain. Autonomous drone systems are susceptible to electronic warfare, cyberattacks against nuclear command-and-control networks, and unintended technical failures, especially under conditions of strategic tension. Dependence on AI-generated intelligence for nuclear decision-making raises the potential for escalation as a result of flawed data, biased algorithms, or erroneous rapid-response judgments.
The proliferation of sophisticated drone technology may also prompt adversaries to pursue advanced countermeasures and increasingly complex nuclear capabilities. Rather than reinforcing stable deterrence, this would instead foster destabilising arms competitions. Rigorous testing, strengthened human oversight measures, and robust international regulations must guide the integration of AI-driven drones to mitigate these operational vulnerabilities, and maintain global nuclear stability.
