Tracking damage during populist rule 

Our research analysed V-Dem's Academic Freedom Index (AFI) across 60 countries, from 1900 to 2020, to track year-on-year changes during populist rule. We found that populist leaders slash overall AFI scores by 0.012 to 0.013 points annually.  

This persists even after we factor in important factors like GDP, education, and democracy. Right-wing populists inflict larger damage (0.015 points), roughly twice that of their left-wing counterparts (0.009 points). 

Every AFI dimension deteriorates: freedom to research and teach drops by 0.068 points; exchange and dissemination by 0.055; institutional autonomy by 0.037; campus integrity by 0.059. Academic-cultural expression by a stark 0.099, the steepest fall overall. 

Populists in power don't just erode democracy. They gut academia, year by year, point by excruciating point. The AFI runs from 0 (total clampdown) to 1 (unfettered inquiry), tracking five core pillars like research freedom and campus integrity via expert assessments 

Scale at a glance 

Think 1.0 as ivory-tower paradise. Universities untouchable, scholars publishing fearlessly. Below 0.5? Red flags of censorship and purges, common in autocratising states. 

That 0.012-0.013 annual AFI plunge under populists? It's 1.2% off the scale yearly, mirroring the chasm between France's sturdy 0.90 and Hungary's battered 0.30-0.33, a 0.57-point freefall. Right-wing firebrands hit harder at 0.015 points; whilst leftists lag at 0.009.  

Real-world sting 

Dimension drops are brutal: academic expression craters 0.099 points (10% gone in a flash, like Hungary's post-communist nosedive). Picture self-censorship spiking, loyalists installed, global average (0.57) in the rearview, populism's quiet academic coup. 

Ideological mechanisms 

Right-wing populists attack universities as elite strongholds. As Maurits Meijers and colleagues explain, populists cast academics alongside media and politicians as threats to 'the pure people'. In Hungary, for example, Viktor Orbán's government enacted the Lex CEU, which banned gender studies and exiled Central European University from Budapest to Vienna.

Charismatic leaders like Orbán and Erdoğan distribute propaganda vilifying 'corrupt' academia

Marina Milić has also outlined how Serbia's government shifted from managing 2024–25 student protests to a 2026 offensive targeting universities. Government tactics included reducing research time, SPIRI 'kill switch' financial controls, and personnel pressures. In so doing, it made academia the frontline of the 'Rebellious university' resistance. 

As Gülşen Doğan explains, this strategy gains traction through charismatic leaders who promise stability, and distribute propaganda vilifying 'corrupt' academia. Hungary's former leader Viktor Orbán and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan rally followers against elite institutions. 

Left-wing populists constrain more subtly, via bureaucracy. Prioritising redistribution, they embed universities in state planning, tying funds to socioeconomic utility. This has been evident in countries such as Venezuela under Hugo Chávez or Mexico's recent cuts to elite think tanks. 

Populism's core logic – the people versus the elite – redefines truth as moral intuition, not evidence. Universities, bastions of pluralism, have become targets. Democracies buffer somewhat via rule-of-law protections, but populists exploit elections to subvert them.

Left-wing populists constrain more subtly, tying university funding to socioeconomic utility

Right-wing populists deal twice the AFI damage (0.015 points/year) of left-wing ones (0.009), accelerating erosion across all dimensions. The mechanism? Leftists often instrumentalise universities, capturing them via ideological sway and funding biases, without outright attacks, preserving surface autonomy while steering outputs.  

Right-wingers, by contrast, launch direct assaults like purges, loyalty tests, and budget cuts to smash institutional independence. This asymmetry explains why right-wing rule correlates with steeper drops in campus integrity and autonomy specifically. 

Real-world impact 

Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro defunded 'Marxist' campuses; the rhetoric of India's current leader Narendra Modi stifles academic freedom. Bolivia's left-wing former leader Evo Morales integrated academia into anti-neoliberal projects, effectively sidelining non-aligned scholars. 

These trends span ideologies and eras, from Juan Perón's Argentina to modern-day Philippines under Rodrigo Duterte. Wealthier nations falter, too, if populists lead. Higher enrolment – paradoxically – attracts governmental constraint, because mass systems invite bureaucratic control. 

Implications for democracy 

Academic freedom underpins evidence-based debate and innovation. Its erosion starves democracy of critical input. When campuses self-censor, policy tilts toward emotion over expertise, amplifying misinformation.

When campuses self-censor, policy tilts toward emotion over expertise, amplifying misinformation

Populists thrive on misinformation. Donald Trump's attacks on academia and expertise have echoed globally, normalising intellectual conformity. In 2026, with Trump's democratic backsliding, and Europe's far-right surge continuing, risks mount. Around the world, populism's anti-pluralism is undermining the foundations of open liberal societies. 

Policy safeguards 

Laws should stop political firings, protect job security through tenure, and prevent political interference in funding. UNESCO and NGOs should track violations via real-time indicators, shaming transgressors. Universities also need internal whistleblower channels and diversified revenue to blunt state leverage. 

The 120-year data range of our research shows how every form of populism erodes academic freedom, but that right-wing populism does so most viciously. Democracies ignore this at their peril. Universities are canaries in the authoritarian coalmine.

⛓️ No.15 in a Loop series examining constraints on academic freedom in a variety of global contexts

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