The US security guarantee 

Interviewers How do you see Lithuania’s relationship with the US in the context of changes within NATO? 

MS I believe this is not an either-or situation. NATO has always played a crucial role in European security – and Europe is not yet prepared to stand on its own. 

Deterrence, I think, is psychological and military. Solidarity in this tumultuous period thus remains paramount, For example, Lithuania lacks air capabilities, so ever since EU accession, NATO has secured Lithuanian airspace. Even Hungary frequently sends jets. 

Pax Americana has vanished, and the balance of power is changing rapidly. The world is becoming multipolar. Besides, the US and Europe are intrinsically different. I believe strongly in US institutions and their democratic logic; they merely differ in approach.

US society resembles a business venture, whereas Europe functions more as a state institution with stronger regulation and value-based thinking. Trump and his inner circle may display undemocratic tendencies, but institutional checks and balances remain. Midterm elections will likely change the situation to Trump's disadvantage; that's why he is in such a rush to accomplish as much as possible. 

Trump's withdrawal of ICE troops from Minneapolis shows he is not as powerful as people think. He is unpredictable, but impeachment is possible, and this offers hope for US institutions. However, after Trump, it won't be the same. In this new reality, we must be cautious. We need concrete plans. 

The threat from Russia 

Interviewers How do EU citizens see the Russian threat? 

MS I think citizens' perception varies significantly across Europe. In Germany, for instance, Russia represents a different kind of threat than it does for Lithuanians, even just in terms of geography. 

There is also a financial dimension: smaller countries operate with limited defence budgets. Lastly, defence and security are questions of culture. For example, engaging in defence is a major step for Germany because of its WW2 trauma. In Lithuania, there’s even a German Brigade, which marks a significant shift. 

Interviewers So, how can Europe best defend itself? 

MS Unity is paramount – and this requires strategic empathy and operational solidarity. A country like Italy doesn’t face the same threats from Belarus as we do; nonetheless, they have other challenges, including migration. Europe’s security environment is becoming more volatile: the US umbrella is weakening, and the nature of threats is changing through hybrid warfare. Our mindset must adapt. 

Without sustained investment, Europeans become extremely vulnerable.

About the interviewee

Margarita Šešelgytė is Director of Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science (IIRPS). Her work spans European security and memory politics. She previously worked with the Lithuanian Military Academy on Baltic defence, and is a frequent voice in debates on regional security. 

Lithuania and the Baltics 

Interviewers How is Lithuania managing Russian security threats?  

MS Lithuania does not treat hybrid threats in purely military terms. We follow the Total Defence approach, which aims to strengthen resilience across society as a whole. This involves cooperation between state and civilians, preparedness in healthcare, education, and communications, and clear public messaging. Total Defence encourages citizens to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours, in line with practices in Sweden and Finland. 

Lithuania has experience in dealing with hybrid threats, which are often unconventional. Just before this interview, for example, Vilnius airport was temporarily shut down because of cigarette-smuggling balloons launched from Belarus. These balloons – often as many as 50 or 60 – fly at an altitude of around eight kilometres, making them difficult to shoot down. Even the cheaper missiles capable of doing so cost around €100,000. The contraband operation is reportedly controlled by the son of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. 

But the issue goes beyond smuggling; it is a hybrid tactic aimed at straining Lithuanian defences. The government has begun developing suspended drone platforms to bring the balloons down. This has been happening since 2024, with a brief pause following the US–Belarus prisoner exchange deal in autumn 2025. Since January this year, however, the threat has resumed. 

Cyber strength – and vulnerability 

Interviewers The Baltic states are known for their advanced digital infrastructure. But does that make them more secure?  

MS It's true that our digital infrastructure is strong, but the more interconnected we are, and the more we rely on cyberspace, the more vulnerable we become. Lithuania, for example, has invested heavily in cybersecurity, particularly after the first major [Russian] state-sponsored cyberattacks on Estonia in 2007, which paralysed the country for two weeks. That highlighted the urgent need to strengthen our own systems. 

Lithuania's approach combines state and private investment, close cooperation with other countries, and work at the EU level. One example is the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation project on rapid cyber response, led by Lithuania. The project addresses cyber threats at national, private, and international levels. 

This threat can also affect daily life. For instance, my daughter’s school recently received a bomb threat that caused weeks of disruption. The school has now begun teaching the children about cyber threats. 

The Suwałki corridor 

Interviewers The Suwałki corridor – the narrow piece of land linking the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory – is a potential weak point. Do you fear the Russians might take advantage? 

MS No, I think Suwałki corridor is no longer a vulnerable location. There is significant intelligence activity on the Polish and Lithuanian sides, alongside extensive military exercises. If something were to happen, there is already substantial intelligence capacity. Besides, [Russian oblast] Kaliningrad is currently depleted by the redeployment of Russian troops to Ukraine. However, if war in Ukraine were to end, the Suwałki gap could once again become a significant threat.

The post How Lithuania is navigating security as Pax Americana fades  appeared first on The Loop.