Out of office, out of the country, and outside the law. The death knell should long since have sounded for Carles Puigdemont’s political career.

On 27 October 2017, Puigdemont unilaterally proclaimed Catalan independence, only to suspend the declaration seconds later. Within three days, he fled to Belgium. Since then, the Catalan president-turned-fugitive has survived three European arrest warrants, and remained on the political scene. His contemporaries, meanwhile – from opposition figure Inés Arrimadas to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy – were gradually swept into the dustbin of Spanish politics. Might 2027 be the year Puigdemont finally joins them?

During nine years of self-imposed exile in Waterloo, Puigdemont has pulled increasingly melodramatic stunts to extend his political shelf life. In 2024, he turned the 2024 Catalan election campaign into a personal branding exercise, listing his name alongside that of his party, Junts, on the ballot paper. After losing the race, Puigdemont briefly surfaced in Barcelona to address 3,500 supporters, despite having vowed to step away from politics should he suffer defeat. For this spectacle, he chose the investiture day of rival Salvador Illa, the first socialist in 14 years to win the Catalan presidency.

These antics, intensified since 2017, have long characterised Puigdemont's political playbook. Indeed, even before his exile, in 2015, Puigdemont was the first Catalan president who refused to pledge loyalty to the Spanish monarch and constitution.

Afloat, but adrift

The separatist leader’s self-preservation efforts have earned him little favour. Twelve of his compatriots received custodial sentences of up to 13 years for their role in the independence process. Puigdemont, meanwhile, escaped to Belgium, where military rebellion and sedition are not extraditable crimes.

During nine years of self-imposed exile in Waterloo, Puigdemont has pulled increasingly melodramatic stunts to extend his political shelf life

In 2017, under charges of sedition and in hope of tapping into Flemish separatist sentiment, Puigdemont requested a Dutch-speaking judge, despite not speaking the language. In 2019, he was voted in as an MEP, obtaining immunity for the duration of his term. But most notable was Puigdemont’s negotiation, from the safety of exile, of a 2023 amnesty deal with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Had the Spanish Supreme Court not intervened to exclude him, the amnesty would have pardoned Puigdemont alongside his co-conspirators. Even among proponents of Catalan independence, the distinction is self-evident.

Further reputational fallout followed. In February 2024, the European Parliament voted to investigate allegations that Kremlin diplomat Nikolai Sadovnikov offered Puigdemont $500bn and 10,000 mercenaries, in exchange for an independent Catalonia becoming a cryptocurrency haven. The allegation has been difficult to shake. No wonder Junts’ accession to the mainstream European Democratic Party, announced in March 2026, is yet to take place.

Independence losing its grip

A new generation is now eligible to vote – leaving Puigdemont, and his plight, behind. As the 2008 recession and centre-right Partido Popular (PP) government slip from view, support for independence has dropped to 31%. In 2024, the four independentist parties, for the first time since modern regional parliamentary elections began in 1980, failed to win an absolute majority. A poll that same year revealed Catalans rated poverty (43%), economic growth (22%), law and order (14%), and climate change (10%) all above concerns vis-à-vis relations with the rest of Spain (9%).

Coalition calculus

So, what now? Junts’ electoral fate in Catalonia’s 2028 regional elections rests largely on the parliamentary arithmetic resulting from Spain’s 2027 general election. An outright majority for Sánchez’s Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will bar Junts, coalition partners until recently, from returning to central government. This would neutralise Junt’s ability to extract independence-favouring concessions, crucial to securing votes in the subsequent Catalan elections, from Madrid. However, corruption scandals embroiling Sánchez’s familial and political circles render that outcome unlikely.

Support for independence is waning. Catalans now rate poverty, economic growth, law and order, and climate change as more important than relations with the rest of Spain

A more probable scenario is continuation of the status quo: PSOE wins seats, but short of a majority. This would leave Junts to step in as kingmakers and leverage momentum from the referendum’s decennial anniversary to increase their vote share at the regionals. Junts left Sánchez’s government in October 2025 citing 'broken promises', and sought to table a motion for an early election. Despite this, both parties' history points to political ambition ultimately trumping such disputes.

Nevertheless, with the PP leading national polls since last year, a fourth Sánchez government might not materialise. In this case, the fierce unionism of the former’s electoral base would make a deal between Puigdemont and the PP's Alberto Núñez Feijóo implausible. Amid troubled relations with the Socialists, Junts has already tried playing the political field. In early June, Junts spokesman Josep Rius recommended Feijóo visit Puigdemont abroad to discuss a no-confidence motion against Sánchez. Based on public sources, Feijóo declined to take up the offer.

For Puigdemont, all roads lead to Llarena

The real prize would of course be a personal comeback in Catalonia. But the former president relies on the Spanish Supreme Court more than he cares to admit. In 2024, Judge Pablo Llarena ruled that the Puigdemont-negotiated amnesty of 2023 cannot apply to his embezzlement of €1.9m. Electoral success would therefore no longer pave the way to having charges dismissed and re-entering lawfully into Spain.

Even if he wins the 2027 election, Puigdemont could not outrun his embezzlement of €1.9m of public funds used to bankroll his 2017 independence referendum

In February 2026, the European Parliament ruled that there were procedural flaws related to the removal, in 2021, of Puigdemont’s immunity. But while its ruling means the latest European arrest warrant stands without a parliamentary waiver, it cannot influence the Spanish Supreme Court to retract federal charges.

The limits of exile politics

The movement for Catalan independence reached its peak in 2017. Arguably, so did Puigdemont’s career. Exile was, initially, a convenient way to avoid answering for decisions in office. It has since turned Puigdemont into a name without power. Reverting to theatrics rather than proposing credible policy has not only undermined his political viability, but also fails to construct a meaningful legacy for when he is finally put out to pasture. Whether Puigdemont yet grasps this harsh fate remains unclear. The 2027 election will deliver the final verdict.

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