Electoral fragmentation

Macron did manage to achieve some clarity from the French election results, but only in a narrow sense. It is now clear that the French electorate is fragmented into four blocs: the left-wing New Popular Front, the centrist Ensemble, the moderate-right party Les Républicains, and the Rassemblement National — and, excluding non-aligned MPs, at least ten parties.

It is also evident that a large part of the French electorate is not ready to accept the rise to power of Marine Le Pen — or the rather vacuous but telegenic dauphin Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old politician Le Pen anointed as President of Rassemblement National (RN).

After the first ballot, the RN and its allies from Éric Ciotti's faction of Les Républicains (LR) were widely expected to form the government. Yet, the electoral barrage against them, informally called the 'republican front', worked against expectations.

The leftist and centrist blocs strategically withdrew their weakest-placed candidates in more than 200 districts

The leftist and centrist blocs strategically withdrew their weakest-placed candidates in more than 200 districts. They instructed their voters to support the best-placed candidates to beat the RN in the second round.

It worked. The RN came in third place with 143 MPs. New Popular Front (NFP) came first with 182 MPs and Ensemble came in second place with 168 MPs.

French election results 2024: final results of the second round

Complex negotiations ahead

The centre-left 'republican front', however, remains a negative alliance and is unlikely to turn into a government formula. Various parliamentary coalitions, from LR to the more moderate parties in the NFP may command enough seats to just clear the bar of the absolute majority of 289 MPs. Such numerical alliances, however, are unlikely to be politically viable without extensive political soul-searching.

Les Républicains have reasserted themselves as the 'real republican right', outside of the 'republican front', in which they did not participate. They are unlikely to join a coalition which includes parts of NFP.

It will be difficult for the parties in NFP to formally break with the radical La France Insoumise to join an alliance with the centrists

At the same time, it will be difficult for the parties in NFP to formally break with the radical La France Insoumise (LFI), the largest party in the coalition, to join an alliance with the centrists. Of course, the declarations of LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon that NFP should govern alone and apply its programme by decree, if necessary, may drive a wedge between LFI and the other NFP members. His words, however, are likely just an opening gambit in what promises to be a very complex coalition negotiation. Realistically, this negotiation will take the whole summer while France hosts the Olympic Games. Any governing solution is likely to be short term until the current alliances are redefined ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Macron’s decision to call snap elections

Macron's calling of snap elections represented a high but calculated risk. Did Macron win his bet?

He certainly shook up a status quo in which Marine Le Pen looked to be cruising toward a 2027 victory. Thanks to the lack of a parliamentary majority for Macron's governments after April 2022, and to LFI's disruptive opposition (favouring street protests, extreme discourse, and unruly parliamentary behaviour), Le Pen's RN had managed to adopt the image of an institutional, moderate, 'popular' opposition party. Only the self-interested obstinacy of out-of-touch and privileged elites insisted on decrying the party as unfit for government.

The RN has significantly increased the number of its MPs, but adopting this rhetoric will not be as easy as before. These elections showed indisputably that large sectors of the French electorate refuse to consider the RN an acceptable party. Voters are ready to vote strategically to prevent its rise to power.

These elections showed indisputably that large sectors of the French electorate refuse to consider the RN an acceptable party

Moreover, during the campaign, the media exposed about a third of RN candidates as extremists or unpresentable. This was not, as Bardella repeatedly maintained on TV, because of the 'hurry' with which the party had to select candidates after Macron's 'irresponsible' decision to allow too little time for the electoral campaign. The RN selected those candidacies in March 2023, and they therefore offered a genuine image of the RN's underbelly.

Uncharted waters

At the same time, Macron's decision may have hastened the end of his own political project. These elections have certainly revitalised the political centre, which obtained a far higher number of MPs than polls had predicted. However, important centrist figures such as current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and ex-Prime Minister Édouard Philippe have stated publicly that France needs a new political alliance that goes beyond the 'Macronist' coalition which has held power since 2017.

The French President is rather unpopular at the moment, and centrist leaders are eager to distance themselves from him. It might, however, be difficult to sideline Macron completely. For him, it is not his re-election that's at stake — he cannot run again in 2027 — but his legacy and, given his young age, his potential future roles, including at the European level.

It will take time for the centrist parties to build a new political project and a new political alignment that includes parts of the moderate left and right. Most importantly, agreeing on a candidate who can represent this variegated coalition with a good chance of beating Le Pen in 2027 will not be easy. Until then, Macron is likely to remain an important player.

After these elections, the French Fifth Republic steps into uncharted waters. In the short term, France's role at the heart of EU integration and as a key supporter of Ukraine remains steadfast. This stability is impressive, given most predictions. However, this new phase of French politics will be fragmented and fluid, demanding recalibration to find a stable equilibrium while countering the far right. French moderate parties face a tough road ahead. Their success or failure will shape France's future, but will also reverberate beyond its borders.

This is an amended version of an article originally published by Verfassungsblog.

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