Unexpected electoral results

Over the past five years, Bulgaria has become a symbol of political instability, with no fewer than eight parliamentary elections, seven caretaker governments and three short-lived proper governments. There seemed to be no end to the political crisis. This is why ex-President Rumen Radev’s landslide victory in the snap general election on 19 April 2026 has caused a political earthquake in Bulgarian politics: it offers the first serious prospect of ending that long-term crisis.

The Progressive Bulgaria coalition led by Radev won 44.5% of the vote and will have 131 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly. Radev, who resigned from the presidency to participate in the parliamentary elections, enjoys the highest public rating of any Bulgarian politician. Bulgarians have long expected Radev to head a party that would present an alternative solution to the political crisis.

The end of parliamentary fragmentation

During his election campaign, Radev promised to dismantle Bulgaria's oligarchic model and fight corruption. These are two intractable problems the government has failed to address for more than two decades, and which have resulted in periodic waves of protests. The liberal coalition We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria has tried to tackle these problems, but parliamentary fragmentation, along with the resistance of status quo parties GERB-SDS and DPS-New Beginning, has rendered their attempts unsuccessful.

Progressive Bulgaria's victory puts an end to parliamentary fragmentation. This should help clear the way for Rumen Radev to dismantle Bulgaria's oligarchic model, and fight corruption

The victory of Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria radically transforms the party system, putting an end to parliamentary fragmentation. Only five political parties and coalitions will be represented in parliament, down from nine. Among the smaller formations from the national-populist spectrum, only Vazrazhdane (Revival) overcame the 4% electoral barrier, but with a result three times lower than in the last parliamentary elections. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which nominated Radev for president ten years ago, also remained outside parliament. Many socialists, disappointed with the party's participation in the coalition government with GERB-SDS, which was overthrown amid mass protests at the end of last year, preferred to vote for the new movement.

Bulgarian parliamentary elections: April 2026 versus October 2024

GERB-SDS and DPS-New Beginning – the two parties which for the past 20 years have come to symbolise a captured state – suffered a heavy defeat. Only 13.4% voted for GERB-SDS, so Boyko Borissov's party will have just 39 seats in the National Assembly. DPS New Beginning, led by oligarch Delyan Peevski – sanctioned for corruption by the US and the UK – received 7.1% of the vote, and 21 seats. The two formations will remain in opposition and thus lose their influence over the judiciary and the media.

GERB-SDS and DPS-New Beginning suffered a heavy electoral defeat. They will remain in opposition, losing their influence over the judiciary and the media

The poor results of these two formations pave the way for the election of new members of the Supreme Judicial Council and its Inspectorate, who for years have been working with expired mandates. The qualified majority of 160 deputies required for the election of new Supreme Judicial Council will be achieved. The reformist We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria will have 37 deputies in the new parliament, and has already announced it will support the winning party in the election of these key institutions for the judiciary.

Incoherent coalition

Political pundits and the media expect Bulgarian politics will become more stable and predictable after this landslide victory. At the same time, we should remember that the coalition formed in an ad hoc manner; Rumen Radev’s party is still in formation.

The group is a heterogeneous bunch, lacking coherence and homogeneity. It includes sportspeople, celebrities, and former functionaries who defected from various parties, including GERB-SDS, DPS-New Beginning, and BSP. The conflicting goals and priorities of the group's various members will make it challenging to unify, constituting a potential threat to the stability of Radev’s government and his ambition to secure a full four-year mandate.

Is there a new Eurosceptic in the club?

Radev has expressed sympathies towards Russia, advocating for closer trade relations, especially access to cheap oil and gas. In Progressive Bulgaria, Radev has the support of other pro-Russian political figures, and Radev's campaign attracted many of the country's pro-Russian voters.

Yet some Progressive Bulgaria voters prioritise closer connections with Brussels than with Moscow. This could create tensions within the coalition, which Radev must navigate carefully in his foreign policy actions.

Bulgarian businesses are highly dependent on EU funds and investment from EU countries. This makes it unlikely that Radev will radically oppose the EU

Radev is inclined toward soft Euroscepticism. But, while he can be critical of EU policy decisions, he is unlikely to oppose the Union in the way Hungary's Viktor Orbán did. Bulgarian businesses are highly dependent on EU funds and foreign direct investment from EU countries, which makes radical opposition to the EU improbable.

During his first post-election press conference, Radev emphasised that Bulgarian politics must be pragmatic, not value-driven. He criticised the EU for attempting to act as a moral leader in the international arena, and expressed concern that, in a world without regulations and principles, the EU could become a victim of its normative agenda.

Prime Minister-elect Radev will likely be anti-liberal and a soft Eurosceptic, but he lacks the power to challenge the EU directly.

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