https://theloop.ecpr.eu/can-marine-le-pen-win-the-french-presidential-elections/ ECPR's Political Science Blog Wed, 06 Apr 2022 18:23:35 +0000 hourly 1 https://theloop.ecpr.eu/can-marine-le-pen-win-the-french-presidential-elections/#comment-27411 Wed, 06 Apr 2022 18:23:35 +0000 https://theloop.ecpr.eu/?p=6663#comment-27411 Thank you for sharing your analysis. It seems this election will probably be decided by two elements:
1) How quickly will the inflation escalate between 1st and 2nd rounds?
1) Whom will Melechon's voters align with in the second round? Given the high expected abstention rate, if 1/3 of Melechon's supporters turn to support Le Pen, they may push her to victory.

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